Blog
Join Me at The MoneyShow
Join our Chief Investment Officer at The MoneyShow Masters Symposium in Las Vegas this July.
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Fed Funds Rate About To Move Higher?
While some are still wanting the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate, there is mounting evidence that they may actually have to raise it!
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Correction is Over ... or is a Recession Coming?
While there are signs underneath the surface that the correction may indeed be over, our proprietary risk gauge is still very much on a composite sell signal. Where we go from here, as always, it will be based on the evidence.
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Fear Abounds
Back on March 8th, we published a blog that highlighted the fact that VIX had spiked. The title of that article was "Have We Found Support?" Clearly, the answer is "no". At least, "not yet".
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Three Reasons Why Cuts Were Appropriate
Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve announced that they were not going to make any changes to the Fed Funds rate. Here are three reasons why I think the Fed is mistaken.
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At the Edge of Support
Right now the US stock market does not look very healthy. This is why we are positioned the way that we are right now.
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Have We Found Support?
The recent spike in fear could coincide with the broad market finding support and the worst may be behind us. However, we cannot know for certain and with all the risk-off indicators that we see, we are going to heed their counsel.
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Lot's of Risk-Off Behavior
We see a LOT of "risk-off" behavior. Yes, we want to take risk and grow the portfolio, when the data starts screaming "risk off" we want to respond appropriately.
Read MoreHealthy Rotation But Weakening Economics
So far, the stock market does not appear to be overly concerned about these latest Middle East developments. Furthermore, we like what we see two months into the New Year.
Read MoreMetals & Mining Lead - And that's NOT Good
Metals & Mining, specifically and commodities in general, are leading the US Stock market. These sectors are typically late cycle leaders. So, there is a historical argument that suggests the bull market might be nearing the end of its run.
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2025 Schwab Tax Documents
This post contains some useful information from Charles Schwab about if/when you can expect your 2025 tax documents. As a reminder, please wait to file your taxes until you've received all your tax documents.
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Market Misbehavior Appearance
I was recently a guest on the Market Misbehavior Podcast with host Dave Keller.
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Value Line Breakout
Well, it's about time! The Value Line Geometric Average finally broke out from its year long base. Small Company stocks have also taken over leadership. This is a hallmark of a traditionally healthy, robust bull market.
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2025 In Review Plus What May Come in 2026
It appears quite possible that we might be able to avoid a recession for at least the short-term. And, if that is true, the average stock is well positioned to transition from surviving, to thriving.
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Award Winning Book!
Evidence-Based Investing is now, officially, an award-winning book.
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Participation is Improving
This is the kind of participation we really need to see if we are truly in a robust bull market.
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Moving from Surviving to Thriving
We certainly have a lot to be thankful for - the move in the markets during the week of Thanksgiving is one of them. However, prior to Thanksgiving week, most stocks were negative for the quarter.
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Just an Oversold Bounce?
While I do still believe it is possible we will avoid a recession, I also believe that the economy is very finely balanced right now. From what I see, our economy could easily tip into recession.
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Negative Trailing 12-Months
Over the last 12 months, the average stock in the S&P 500 now has a negative trailing twelve-month return.
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These Events Are Supposed to Be Rare
While we utilize both fundamental and technical analysis, we absolutely have a bias towards technical analysis. Arguably the biggest reason we use technical analysis in our work is the simple realization that volatility begets...
Read MoreBig Divergence - But No Recession
There's a very big divergence in both the stock market as well as the economy ... and it's been getting worse.
Read MoreHow to Handle Investment Risk ... Properly
What you've been told about stock market risk is wrong. As a result, some handle risk wrong. The reality is that the concept of "risk tolerance" is embedded in a very old theory. We would contend that the theory is wrong.
Read MoreSeptember About to Get Tough?
On the surface, so far, September has defied history. But, we must look deeper than the surface. And when we look there, we are entering the toughest part of the worst month of the year. This first chart is the Seasonality chart for...
Read More3 Reasons Why Recession Fears Are Overblown
In today's short video, we show three reasons why it appears that recessionary fears are a bit overblown.
Read MoreSeptember is Not Always Bad
Yes, September is the worst month in the stock market year. HISTORICALLY. But that does NOT mean that every September is negative. And it sure does not mean September 2025 will be negative. History should be our guide. It is not a...
Read MoreMassive Small Cap Rally - NOT Bearish
This past Friday, Powell spoke. The stock market did too! After Chairman's Powell's speech, the United States Stock Market rallied significantly. Most telling was the rally in the small company stock universe. Yes, we know that...
Read MoreRate Cuts Coming?
One catalyst that may drive stocks higher is an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. There is some data that suggests the Federal Reserve may cut rates at their September meeting.
Read MoreDon't Forget: September is Coming
Remember, the largest stocks have an outsized influence on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices. So, while those two indices continue to suggest that "all is well" a look at the evidence underneath the surface says something different.
Read MoreBulls Gaining Strength
We see some evidence that the bulls are gaining strength. We also see some evidence that we are "due" for a pullback of some magnitude.
Read MoreWrestling Over Interest Rates
President Trump has made it clear that he believes Chairman Powell should have lowered interest rates some time ago.
Read MoreEvidence-Based Investing - Now Available!
The book is finally ready! Buying it will help flood victims as all proceeds will go to help flood victims.
Read MoreBulls Advance with Thin Herd
Last week the S&P 500 made new all-time highs. However, if we look under the surface, we see evidence that this herd is still pretty anemic.
Read MoreUS Stock Market is Giving Mixed Signals
As of mid-day Monday, June 23rd, it appears that the US Stock Market is shrugging off concerns about the United States being drawn further into the war between Israel and Iran. That could certainly change quickly. But, for now, it is a...
Read MoreThe War NOT in the Middle East
Israel and Iran are not the only ones at War. For some time now, President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell have been in a bit of tug of war.
Read MoreA National Debt Crisis Will Fuel Your Crisis
Since the Republican-lead House passed the bill, it has been facing increased scrutiny. While the jury is still out, the evidence suggests that the bill could very well increase our deficit. And we cannot afford that. We need a battle axe.
Read MoreNo So Fast - The Bear May Still Be Alive
One of our quant models is still on a technical sell signal. The fact that it has not yet flipped to a buy signal is giving us some pause. Typically, the two quant models fire their buy and sell signals at different times. That is...
Read MoreHow To Take Risk Safely
As more and more evidence mounts that the stock market correction is over, we want to review how we shift back into an offensive strategy ... SAFELY. That said, since it appears that this correction may very well be a "V-Shaped"...
Read MoreOne Big Beautiful ... Ticking Time Bomb
Earlier this week, the Federal government held one of their regular bond auctions. It did not go well and it is NOT a good sign.
Read MoreDoes This Bull Have Legs to Run?
After a 20% rally in the S&P 500, you'd think we are convinced. But since history is replete with examples of Bear Market rallies, our job is to remain skeptical until the evidence convinces us otherwise. So what does the evidence say?
Read MoreWe Might Avoid a Recession
The first quarter GDP was negative. So, can we avoid a recession? In this brief economic update, we take a look at two economic datasets that are considered to be LEADING indicators. These indicators give us clues - IN ADVANCE - of a...
Read MoreEconomic Experts Got it Wrong
We got the Advanced Estimate for 1st quarter GDP and it was VERY different from what the experts at the Federal Reserve were predicting. You cannot rely on expert forecasts to manage your wealth.
Read MoreNegative GDP and Recession is Coming?
This week we will get the Advance Estimate of 1st Quarter GDP. And while our risk gauge does not have any economic inputs, the report itself could create some pressure in the overall market.
Read MoreBe Careful of Bull Traps
The US Stock Market had an epic rally on April 9th. However, since then, we have not seen any significant follow-through to give us any confidence that the bear market is over. Unfortunately, that epic rally from the 9th likely drew in...
Read MoreBear Market Survival Guide
If we are in a Bear Market, how can your portfolio survive?
Read MoreSame Bear Market. Different Results
Well, it's finally official: We are in a bear market. But we would argue that you should have already implemented your defensive portfolio strategy.
Read MoreInflation is Higher Tariffs Will Make 'em Worse
We got an update to Core PCE and it ticked back higher. It is important to note that this inflation data is from BEFORE President Trump's tariffs went into effect.
Read MoreEurope Will Lead the United States
While the United States stock market has clearly out-performed the European stock market over the last ten years, that has changed ... at least for now.
Read MoreRecession Ahead or Finely Balanced?
Ever since the stock market started to pullback, we've been debating whether or not it was normal action, or the beginning of a bear market. We've since shown the data that suggests the first quarter is likely going to have negative GDP.
Read More30 Percent Decline in Store?
Another YouTuber - who has thousands of subscribers - is predicting that the NASDAQ will go down 30%. In today's short video, we discuss whether or not we concur with that prediction.
Read MoreShifting to Cash - Strategic vs Tactical
Right now, it appears that cash is king. As the stock market has continued to come under pressure it appears more and more likely that a full blown recession may very well be at hand.
Read MoreA Recession May Be At Hand
We have new data that suggests a recession may be at hand; at least according to one of the Federal Reserve Banks.
Read MoreNVDA Will Lead Market Lower?
Nvidia posted their quarterly earnings showing they were up 71%. But the market did not react very kindly. Why? Since Nvidia has been leading the S&P 500 higher the last couple of years, we must wonder if it will now lead it lower?
Read MoreAbolishing the IRS Will Cause a Recession?
While I shot this video in late February, 2025, these principles apply regardless of what month it is and no matter who occupies the White House. We are currently hearing talk about abolishing the IRS and replacing the income tax with...
Read MoreBefore Buying a Stock, Look for this ...
Before we add something to a client portfolio, we want to see EVIDENCE - hence the title of my book, Evidence Based Investing - that the trend is positive.
Read MoreTax Forms for 2024
Yeah! Our favorite time of year: Tax time! We know many of you are ready to get your returns prepared, but please remember to wait until all your tax forms are available to avoid the need to file an amended tax return later.
Read MoreWill Tariffs Drive Up Prices?
Will tariffs drive up prices for the American consumer? In order to find the answer, we look at the data ... and see some long-standing unintended consequences for the American consumer.
Read MoreJobs Report Was Great ... But the Stock Market Disagreed?
This past Friday, January 10th, the latest Jobs Report came out ... and it was, by most measures, a fantastic report. But both the stock and the bond market did not digest it very well. Why?
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - January 2025
We review a few data points that are a definitely concerning. Santa certainly did NOT come to town this year. So, what does that mean?
Read MoreForecast for 2025
As the year draws to a close, many "experts" are issuing their stock market and economic forecasts for 2025. Our thoughts, just ignore them.
Read MoreWill Santa Claus Come to Town?
The "Santa Claus Rally" usually occurs in the US Stock Market in December. While December is historically a pretty good month in the stock market, so far, December 2024 has not been good. Well, will Santa Claus come to town this year?
Read MoreNavigating Healthcare Costs in Retirement: Life After Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance
As you approach retirement, a critical aspect of your retirement strategy can catch even the most financially savvy individuals off guard: healthcare costs. For decades, you may have enjoyed employer-sponsored health insurance. As...
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - December 2024
November 2024 was a fantastic month in the United States stock market. But you might be surprised to see which sector of the S&P 500 comes in third place for year-to-date performance.
Read MoreDOGE - Do We Need It?
We got a not-so-good update on inflation this morning. Plus, seems like a lot of chatter lately about DOGE ... Regardless of how you feel about the most recent elections here in the United States, the data suggests that something needs...
Read MorePressing The Advantage
What's your Risk Tolerance? A common question that is too often viewed over-simplistically.
Read MoreInflation Battle Does Not Appear To Be Over
Based on the latest data, it does NOT appear that the battle on inflation has been completely won. The bond market seems to agree. We look at the data. Plus some of the retirement plan contribution limits are increasing in 2025. There...
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This Is Very Bullish
This is very bullish folks. The top pane is the weekly candle chart for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (Ticker: IWM). You can see three blue/gray bars that I've added to the chart. The bottom two bars represent the 2-year trading range ...
Read MoreYear-End Giving Strategies: Maximizing Your Impact
America is a generous country. People with diverse backgrounds can unite for a good cause, whether to benefit their local communities or the broader world. As we enter the holiday season, now is a great time to think about your giving...
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - November 2024
After an above average September, what did October bring? A bit of a pullback. But is this pullback normal market action, or is it suggesting something more ominous?
Read MoreFile The News
Given that the race for the White House is at hand, some are concerned that ______ might actually win. While we wan all of our clients to be engaged in the political process, we should not let our politics dictate our investment decisions.
Read MoreStrong Start to October
When reviewing the last four weeks, we can easily see that advancing stocks have been increasing while (obviously) the number of stocks that have been declining has fallen.
Read MoreSafeguarding Your Identity: Essential Tips for Financial Security
Statistics show that nearly 33% of Americans have faced some identity theft attempts in their lives, and experts estimate there is a new case of identity theft every 22 seconds. As financial professionals, one of our primary goals is...
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - October 2024
In this month's review of the stock market, we discuss how September 2024 defied historical precedent - notching a strong month. But the star of the show might just be the S&P 500's advance-decline line, which closed the month at...
Read More50 Basis Point Cut - Implies A Recession Is Near, Right?
The Federal Reserve announced that they were cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a larger cut than many were expecting. So, does that imply that the Federal Reserve is concerned that a recession is near ... right?
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - September 2024
The month of August started off pretty rough, but ended pretty strong. As encouraged as we were at the close of August, so far, September is living up to its billing as the worst month in the stock market year.
Read MoreDon’t Be A Victim Of The Retirement Crisis
Don’t Be A Victim Of The Retirement Crisis If you think the United States has a retirement crisis, you are not alone. A recent survey found that 79% of working-age Americans believe the same thing. That percentage is up from 67% in...
Read MoreNvidia Down August Up
We will shoot the full Monthly Market Monologue next week, but today we wanted to review the really bad day from Nvidia. However, despite the fact that Nvidia was down heavy yesterday, we see some encouraging signs in the market's breadth.
Read MoreAbove and Below Average Month ... So Far
With only a few trading days left in August, the S&P 500 has had a well above average month (as represented by the blue diamond on the first chart).
Read MoreArtificial Intelligence’s Influence on the Investing Landscape
In 1999, Bill Gates wrote, “How you gather, manage, and use information will determine whether you win or lose.” Companies looking to be successful in the future should heed these words when making decisions about implementing...
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Should We Shift To A Conservative Posture?
You do not need to wonder if we have shifted into a more conservative allocation. We shift each of our models according to the rules that govern that model. This blog post briefly explains that process.
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - August 2024
July was a fantastic month - especially for small cap stocks. The Advance-Decline for the Russell 3000 closed the month at all-time highs creating a bit of a bullish divergence since the price has not (yet?) followed.
Read MorePreparing to Send a Child Off to College? Don't Forget These Important Topics
Sending a child off to college is a major milestone for any family, whether you’re a parent, grandparent, or close friend. It’s an exciting time, filled with anticipation and perhaps a bit of trepidation. There’s so much to do, and...
Read MoreWe Are Moving
This coming Saturday, July 27th, we will be moving our office.
Read MoreDo You Know About the New Filing Requirements for Small Business Owners?
If you are a small business owner—or plan to be one—you should be aware of a new reporting requirement. The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), passed in 2021, changed beneficial ownership rules, which is expected to impact 32 million...
Read MoreInflation Down, But "The Market" Went Down Too?
Yesterday, we got the latest inflation data ... and it was good news! But "the stock market" went down?!? But did it really? As we have repeatedly stated, we have to look deeper than the surface. Yesterday's action was good news and,...
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Intellectual Independence
Those that truly commemorate Independence Day likely reflected on Founding Father’s like George Washington, Patrick Henry, Ben Franklin, etc. Thankfully, another Founding Father has regained some national prominence these last few years.
Read MoreTen Common Estate Strategy Mistakes You Should Avoid
Legacy preparation can play a key role in any financial strategy. Legacy management lets you consider what happens to everything you’ve accumulated—and may continue to accumulate—throughout your lifetime. But far too often, we’ve seen...
Read MoreMonthly Market Monologue - July 2024
Today's Monthly Market Monologue goes into greater depth in an attempt to answer the question: Are we already in a recession?
Read MoreRecession Started? GDPNow Predicts Not
If you read our blog from a couple of weeks ago, you know that the Schannep Recession Indicator (which has, so far, a 100% accuracy rating) has just recently flipped. Given that today is the last trading day of the first half of 2024,...
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Recession Already Started?
Recently, a friend of mine told me about The Schannep Recession Indicator. This indicator just crossed the signal line, and given its perfect track record, it does suggest (not guarantee) that a recession is either under way or very near.
Read MoreFinancial Wedding Tips for a Memorable “I Do”
As we enter the traditional wedding month of June, we wanted to explore the range of expenses that can be related to this special event. The average US wedding costs $35,0001 According to The Knot Real Weddings Study of nearly 10,000...
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Bipartisan Solution in the Works?
In today's Epoch Times, there is a story about a bipartisan group of lawmakers in D.C. that are urging their fellow lawmakers to tackle a very large impending financial crisis. A solution is long overdue.
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Monthly Market Monologue Part 2 - June 2024
In Part 2 of our Monthly Market Monologue, we review some of the economic data points that make us a little concerned about the direction of the economy.
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Monthly Market Monologue Part 1 - June 2024
In this month's recap of the stock & bond markets, we review the strong close to the month of May. This is generally seen as a good sign. We also point to some encouraging data on the number of stocks advancing versus decliners.
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Long Term Bonds - Still a NoGo
Today is the last trading day of the month. While May has been generally good for the broad market, today the market is facing a critical test. As we publish this, it appears that the broad market will close below key levels ... unless...
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Don't Let the Tax Tail Wag the Investment Dog
In general, if an investment is no longer attractive, it should likely be sold. Yes, we should consider the capital gains tax (assuming it is a non-qualified position), but the potential tax should not dictate. Influence? Yes. Dictate? No.
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Monthly Market Monologue - May 2024
In this month's review of the stock market, we discuss April's correction and whether or not we believe the stock market shifted back into a bear market. We show you one indicator that suggests that the uptrend is still in tact. We...
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Monthly Market Monologue - April 2024
Bonds are continuing to struggle. As a result, if you are counting on bonds' supposedly lower volatility to dampen the volatility in your portfolio, your disappointment might continue.
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Good News Going Into Good Friday
Here is some good news as we head into Good Friday.
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Monthly Market Monologue - March 2024
We could see a return to a stagflationary environment, like what the country experienced in the late '60s and through the '70s. Are you prepared for that?
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Economic Update - Webinar Recording Feb. 20, 2024
We were asked to give an Economic Update to a local staffing firm's clients of Chief Financial Officers and CPAs.
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Does The Japanese Recession Matter?
The Japanese economy apparently fell into a recession in 2023. Does that matter?
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Monthly Market Monologue - February 2024
When we look underneath the surface, we see good signs.
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Don't MAIL Tax Payments
If you MAIL estimated payments to the IRS, you might want to pay another way.
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Inflation Is NOT "Very High" ... But Your Home Owners Insurance Is Still About to Jump
We dispel the claim that inflation is "very high".
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Monthly Market Monologue - January 2024 - Part 2
In Part 2 of our Monthly Market Monologue, we review a few economic data points, including the jobs report that came out this morning. While some are predicting a recession (still), we see economic data that suggests the economy is...
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Monthly Market Monologue - January 2024 - Part 1
In this first installment of our Monthly Market Monologue, we review the key indices' performance for 2023. Since the S&P 500's return for 2023 looks impressive, we (once again) do the math to show that this index's return came as a...
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Zero Percent Tax Bracket, RMD and Advancers v Decliners
In this week's short video, we take a quick look at a couple of key year-end tax reminders. If you are required to take a distribution from your qualified plans, there are some important considerations you should keep in mind. There is...
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Monthly Market Monologue - December 2023
In this month's market review, we review the recently revised Gross Domestic Product stats - they were revised UPWARD! We discuss the fact that we have seen a lot of positive economic surprises. Yes, the yield curve is still negative....
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Will Tax Loss Harvesting Cause Year End Volatility?
While we like what we see underneath the surface, today's video shares one concern that we have as the year end approaches: tax loss harvesting. Many in the industry still advocate for "tax loss harvesting". While we think the practice...
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A Simple Idea for Teaching Generosity
As we approach Thanksgiving, we thought we would share a simple idea for how you can teach your children and/or grandchildren to live generously.Special thanks to Ron Blue and Kingdom Advisors for sharing this idea many years ago...
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Retirement Planning: What do Military Families Need to Know?
Retirement is an exciting life milestone that requires careful planning and budgeting. For military families, it requires even more knowledge because you need to ensure that you meet all the military's qualifications and that you are...
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Monthly Market Monologue - November 2023
In this month's episode, we review the impact that The Magnificent 7 have had on the S&P 500's return. The reality is that the vast majority of stocks are negative for the year. This is NOT a bull market.However, based on how November...
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The Bear Is Stretching
While it is still too soon to tell if we are headed right back into a Bear Market, the data suggests that the bear has re-awakened. He's currently stretching and trying to determine if he is going to lay back down, or get up and go get...
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