As the year draws to a close, many "experts" are issuing their stock market and economic forecasts for 2025. Our thoughts, just ignore them.
Generally, economic or stock market predictions fall into two main categories:
1) Consensus
2) Bold Prediction
The "consensus" forecasts are those that are basically saying what everyone else is saying. It is a "safe" forecast. No one is going to lose their job because their forecast is in line with everyone else's. An old economics joke: "An economist is someone who sits around all day trying to predict what other economists are going to predict."
The bold predictions. These are different. Most bold predictions are going to be wrong - flat wrong - and you will likely never remember it because they were so wrong. The bold predictions that are correct, well those types of predictions could lead to a 30 or 40 year career as being the "expert that predicted _____________". This is why bold predictions are made; in an attempt to be "the prophet".
How many times have you seen a financial segment lead in with something along those lines. "In our next segment, we are joined by ____________, who correctly predicted ___(insert something that happened a really long time ago__."
They rarely discuss how many other predictions this "expert" has issued but have NOT been correct.
We will follow the current data, as it comes in, rather than making decisions based on what we THINK might happen sometime in the future. We are not trying to be a prophet. We are just trying to make profits.
That said, given the weakness of the advance-decline lines as well as the absence of the Santa Claus rally, we are paying attention to a couple of key levels which could come into play. No, this is not predicting. This is preparing.
You can watch this week's short-form video by clicking here or the image below.
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