The S&P 500 was up ~16% in 2025. However, that is a very deceptive number. The reality is that the average U.S. stock under-performed a decent money market fund in 2025.
In this year's first market and economic update video, we review the major indices as well as the economic backdrop. In short, it appears to us that the majority of American companies were simply trying to survive and navigate unpredictable economic waters in 2025.
However, as we will show in this month's video, we have a hard time envisioning a recession in the near-term when it appears that both corporations and consumers are well prepared for that recession.
Also, recent GDP reports came in higher than many expected. So, is the economy healthier than many expected? Unfortunately, no, this video will show that the GDP calculation is far from perfect and, in reality, does not do a good job of measuring the U.S. economy.
All that said, it appears quite possible that we might be able to avoid a recession for at least the short-term. And, if that is true, the average stock is well positioned to transition from surviving, to thriving.
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