Earlier today, we got an update to Core PCE which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation ... and it ticked back higher.
It is important to note that this inflation data is from BEFORE President Trump's tariffs went into effect. So, naturally, there is notable concern that if the tariffs remain in force that inflation will continue to move higher.
But since evidence shows us that the first year of a Presidential term tends to be a good one for the stock market, how does this year compare to that data? Ultimately, the data suggests that a defensive posture can be justified. As a result, we've already made those adjustments for our clients. When the data suggests we should go on offense again, we will.
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